Eighty-five barges will glide along the Seine on Friday, Saturday morning AEST, marking the official commencement of the Paris Olympics, serving as a final journey for the athletes before the games conclude and the festivities commence. Australia’s chef de mission, Anna Meares, was straightforward when asked on Thursday how many medals the team hopes to secure: “As many as we can get.”
Her comment was partly in jest, reflecting her recognition of a question she has likely encountered more frequently than any other leading up to the Games. However, it succinctly encapsulated the unforgiving nature of the Olympics.
The ultimate outcome—reflected in the medal count in just over two weeks—will reveal the effectiveness of Australia’s Olympic preparations, including the substantial financial investment in qualifying 460 athletes and the countless hours those athletes have devoted to their sports.
As a former athlete, Meares aims to temper the fervor around medal counts and promote an appreciation for the personal objectives of each athlete. “Our highest medal tally was 17 gold medals. With 460 athletes in Paris, I refuse to accept that 443 won’t be seen as successful if they don’t bring home a gold medal,” she shared with Guardian Australia leading up to the Games. “However, those gold medals hold significant importance too.”
In this light, Australia’s first week in the competition is crucial, as swimming events are set for the first nine of the 16 official days. The Dolphins, fresh off their remarkable Olympic performance in Tokyo, where they secured nine gold, three silver, and eight bronze medals, are building momentum. Their success has continued, and the 13 gold medals earned at the 2023 world championships placed Australia ahead of the US on a medal table for the first time since 2001.
Head coach Rohan Taylor is striving not to let their internal medal aspirations skew the atmosphere of the meet. “I avoid making predictions; in my view, you get distracted by being ahead or behind,” he stated on Thursday.
Zac Stubblety-Cook, the gold medalist in the 200m breaststroke from Tokyo, expressed the significance of seeing the Paris pool this week: “For the last three years, everything has been about Paris and these Games, and now it’s all in front of you,” he noted before the weekend’s events. “It’s not necessarily a pressure-filled moment but rather a feeling of excitement and rising to that occasion.”
Bronte Campbell, competing in her fourth Olympics, mentioned feeling the adrenaline rush for the first time this week. “This is the reason we do this,” she emphasized. “We don’t train for three years, waking up at 4 am every morning, enduring the gym, and sacrificing every social aspect of our lives just for the sake of it. We do it for the Olympic Games.”
Swimming has historically been a leading source of medals for Australia, contributing 67 out of 162 golds, and that number is expected to increase in Paris. However, optimism about Australia’s chances extends beyond the pool.
Gold medals in Tokyo were secured in canoeing, cycling, rowing, sailing, and skateboarding, and Australia remains a contender in all of those disciplines.
Jess Fox, the flag-bearer, is anticipated to be a powerful competitor in the C-1 canoe slalom, an event she won in Tokyo, as well as the K-1, where she earned bronze. A new event, kayak cross, has been introduced in Paris, giving the 30-year-old a realistic chance at three gold medals. In canoe sprint, the Tokyo gold-winning duo Jean van der Wetshuyzen and Thomas Green will again compete, with the latter also entering the solo category.
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Keegan Palmer, who bagged gold in men’s park skateboarding at Tokyo, is now joined by two young stars, Arisa Trew in women’s park and Chloe Covell in women’s street, as potential podium finishers. Matt Wearn returns to defend his Olympic title in sailing’s dinghy class. In BMX freestyle, Logan Martin aims to replicate his Tokyo win, while Saya Sakakibara is a strong contender in BMX racing. There are positive prospects for gold in golf, boxing, both road and track cycling, triathlon, diving, hockey, rugby sevens, surfing, tennis, and equestrian.
Even in track and field—an area where Australia has historically faced challenges compared to other top-performing Olympic teams—there are numerous authentic medal prospects. Pole vaulter Nina Kennedy clinched gold at last year’s world championship, while Jessica Hull is a strong competitor in the 1500m after breaking a world record in the 2000m just two weeks ago. With robust contenders in the women’s high jump as well, surpassing the previous record of 17 golds—achieved in both Tokyo and Athens in 2004—wouldn’t be unexpected.
Gracenote, the analytics firm handling Olympic medal forecasts, anticipates Australia will slightly miss the mark, projecting a total of 15 golds. However, they also predict an overall medal haul of 54, which would rank second only to the tally from the Sydney 2000 Games.
Regardless of whether the Australians achieve their targets, Meares emphasized the importance of maintaining a “respectful perspective” towards the accomplishments of the entire team. “I would have preferred to compete without the pressure of the medal tally,” she remarked. “It’s merely an added competition that amplifies the stress.”
