Vice President Kamala Harris has made considerable gains against former President Trump in the election betting markets since she became the frontrunner for the Democratic ticket.
As of Sunday, Trump was projected with a 54.6% chance of winning the election, while Harris stood at 39.2%, based on the Real Clear Politics betting average, indicating a difference of over 15.2 percentage points.
Although the market still leans towards Trump, this 15-point difference signifies a notable change in the past week. On July 20, just before President Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race, Trump had a 61% chance of winning, according to Real Clear Politics, with Harris at 18.2% and Biden at 9.5%, reflecting an almost 43-point gap between Trump and the nearest challenger.
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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump (Getty Images)
A similar pattern has emerged on PredictIt, a prediction market based in New Zealand, where political outcomes can be ‘bet’ on. Currently, Trump shares are priced at 54 cents, while Harris shares are at 48 cents. Since shares on this platform range from $0.01 to $0.99, the share price effectively represents the probability of a given outcome, indicating a 54% likelihood of Trump winning the election.
Harris has notably reduced the gap with Trump on PredictIt in recent days, as historical data from the platform reveals. On July 20, Trump shares were at 64 cents, Harris at 27 cents, and Biden at 15 cents, meaning the betting price on Harris has narrowed from 37 cents to just six cents this past week.
Vice President Kamala Harris at a campaign rally on June 28, 2024, in Las Vegas. (Bizuayehu Tesfaye/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
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The narrowing betting markets coincide with polls suggesting a potentially competitive race between Trump and Harris. According to the Real Clear Politics national average, Trump maintains a slim 1.7 point advantage over Harris in the polls. While polling in key battleground states is less frequent, the results also indicate a tight contest.
Former President Trump at a Republican National Committee spring donor retreat in Palm Beach, Florida, on May 4, 2024. (Donald Trump 2024 campaign)
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Neither the Trump nor Harris campaigns immediately responded to a request for comments from Fox News Digital.
