An analysis comparing polls conducted before and after President Biden announced his decision not to pursue re-election shows the emerging campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris gaining traction, with one notable exception.
Harris, who has the potential to be the first Black female president and the first president of South Asian heritage, experienced a decline in support from Black voters when compared to Biden, as revealed in a recent analysis.
Examining the detailed responses from New York Times/Siena polling conducted on July 2 and July 24, Biden outperformed former President Trump by five points among Black voters.
In the July 2 poll, Biden received 56% support from Black voters, while Trump garnered 13%—a significant 43-point advantage.
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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump. (Getty Images)
Nonetheless, in the most recent poll where Harris has replaced Biden as the Democratic front-runner, the vice president secured support from 65% of Black respondents, compared to Trump’s 17%. This reflects a 48-point differential, marking an increase of five points.
This gap was initially brought to light by John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Institute of Politics, in a broader analysis of the two polls.
In a chart titled, “Harris Sees Dramatic Improvement Among Young Voters, Hispanics, Independents,” the MSNBC contributor illustrated that Harris experienced a 29-point advantage over Biden among voters aged 18-29.
Among Hispanic voters polled by the Times, there was a 33-point swing in favor of Harris, while overall registered voters shifted seven points toward her, generating a 49-49 tie with Trump.
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Democrats and liberal media analysts are downplaying polls reflecting former President Trump’s improved support among Black voters. (Felipe Ramales for Fox News Digital)
Conversely, Washington Free Beacon editor Peter Hasson shared Della Volpe’s chart and highlighted that it indicated Harris had lost five points among Black voters to Trump, who often faces accusations from Democrats of being racist or discriminatory toward minorities.
During a speech in Philadelphia earlier this month, Harris accused Trump of “spreading hate” and “fostering fear.” However, Trump has frequently pointed to achievements from his presidential tenure, such as collaborating with Senator Tim Scott, R-S.C., to create “opportunity zones” in underserved communities.
In his current campaign, Trump has reached out to the Black community, including a planned visit to Chicago this week to participate in a question-and-answer session with the National Association of Black Journalists.
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Additionally, he is scheduled to hold a rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania—home to a significant Black population—which will be his first event in the state since a nearly fatal incident about three hours west in Butler on July 13.
Post-2016 rally near Lansing, Michigan, Trump faced backlash from the left for asking Black voters with Democratic leanings in underserved areas, “What do you have to lose?”
His then-opponent, Hillary Clinton, labeled the comment, “so ignorant, it’s staggering.”
In contrast, Biden asserted during a 2020 interview on a popular New York radio show within the Black community, “If you have a problem deciding if you are for me or Trump, then you’re not Black.”
