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The recent release of Western hostages held by Russia marks a significant achievement for the Biden administration; however, it comes with serious implications. By exchanging Russian operatives and criminals for unjustly detained Americans and dissidents, this agreement may set a precedent that encourages Russia and other authoritarian states to seize more hostages.
The scale of this prisoner exchange is unprecedented compared to recent swaps. Such negotiations seldom involve so many parties. The agreement encompasses at least 24 individuals across eight nations: Belarus, Germany, Norway, Poland, Russia, Slovenia, and the United States, along with Turkey, where the exchange occurred.
Under this arrangement, Russia agreed to release former Marine Paul Whelan and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, both imprisoned on dubious espionage allegations since 2018 and 2023, respectively. Also freed was Alsu Kurmasheva, a Russian-American dual citizen and Radio Free Europe journalist who received a 6.5-year sentence for allegedly “spreading false information” about the Russian military.
WALL STREET JOURNAL URGES US TO CHANGE POLICY ON HOSTAGE TAKERS FOLLOWING GERSHKOVICH RELEASE: ‘PAY A PRICE’
In addition, both Moscow and Minsk released five German citizens previously detained on security-related charges. The Kremlin also liberated eight Russian dissidents, including well-known opposition leaders Ilya Yashin and Vladimir Kara-Murza. The latter, associated closely with Alexei Navalny and a U.S. green card holder, died in prison last February. The Kremlin’s rarity in releasing political dissidents underscores the historic significance of this exchange.
Former prisoner held by Russia, US journalist Evan Gershkovich, is welcomed by President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris upon his arrival at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on August 1, 2024. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
The cost of this agreement was steep. As part of the deal, the United States and its allies have released a perilous individual: Vadim Krasikov, an FSB assassin who is serving a life sentence in Germany for murdering a Chechen refugee in Berlin in 2019. He appears to have been a key target for Moscow. Others involved from Russia include four “illegals” (agents posing as civilians) held in Slovenia, Norway, and Poland, as well as three individuals detained in the U.S. on charges related to cybercrime or the smuggling of military equipment.
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The White House is touting the prisoner swap as a diplomatic triumph. “The agreement that facilitated their release marks a diplomatic success,” remarked President Joe Biden. However, this exchange potentially encourages further hostage situations.
Putin’s agenda regarding prisoner swaps is a calculated maneuver to obtain the freedom of his operatives while leveraging Western nations’ readiness to “trade up” for innocent hostages. Worse yet, President Biden has contravened former Secretary of State George Shultz’s steadfast rule on hostage negotiations: do not pay for hostages. According to Shultz, “The moment you ransom a hostage, you create an incentive for others to take more hostages.”
This recent prisoner swap, orchestrated by the Biden administration, establishes a precarious precedent that undermines established international norms against hostage-taking and may embolden Iran, terrorist factions, and others to adopt similar strategies in light of Russia’s gain.
Ultimately, this situation illustrates that Moscow has effectively learned how to navigate the hostage exchange landscape with Washington. After the Trump administration declined to swap Whelan for the notorious arms dealer Viktor Bout, the Kremlin secured former Marine Trevor Reed instead.
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Moscow later exchanged Reed for Konstantin Yaroshenko, a Russian drug smuggler convicted in the U.S., in April 2022. Subsequently, Russia traded U.S. basketball star Brittney Griner, who had been arrested earlier that year for drug offenses, for Bout in December 2022. When the Biden administration refused to exchange Krasikov for Whelan, the FSB captured Gershkovich as a new bargaining chip, leading to Krasikov’s release under this latest agreement.
The Biden administration’s most recent prisoner swap not only creates a clear incentive for future hostage-taking but also engenders tougher negotiations in any subsequent hostage exchanges. The stakes of this latest deal are high, and Biden may be leaving the door open for even more intricate negotiation scenarios for the next president.
