The rise of Vice President Kamala Harris to the forefront of the Democratic ticket has aided the party in reclaiming solid control over at least one historically Democratic state, potentially boosting the national outlook as well.
According to a recent Siena College Research Institute poll released on Tuesday, Harris is leading former President Trump 53-39 among likely voters in New York.
While a 14-point advantage would usually be deemed slender in a state where Democratic presidential candidates have previously triumphed by as much as 30 points, it suggests a more favorable scenario compared to President Biden, who only held leads of 8 to 10 points in earlier Siena College polls.
KAMALA HARRIS HOSTING A RALLY IN PENNSYLVANIA TO UNVEIL HER RUNNING MATE FOLLOWING HER DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Vice President Kamala Harris (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
“The political landscape has shifted since the last Siena College poll. The leadership change within the Democratic ticket has had a noticeable, albeit not overwhelming effect, on the race. Harris boasts an 86% support rate from Democrats, a rise from Biden’s 75% back in June. Additionally, while independent voters favor Trump over Harris 47-40%, they favored Trump over Biden by a significantly larger margin, 45-28%,” stated Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg in a press release. “Harris also leads among Black voters with 81-11%, an increase from Biden’s 59-29% lead in June.”
Harris benefits from superior approval ratings in this strongly Democratic state compared to both Biden and Trump. Currently, 53% of respondents view Harris favorably, while 43% have an unfavorable opinion of her. In contrast, Trump’s favorability has only been between 37% and 39%, while Biden’s rating was negative at 42-53 in June.
“Among all presidential candidates likely to be on New York’s ballot, Harris is the sole candidate with a positive favorability score,” Greenberg noted. “If the election involved six candidates, her lead would dip slightly from 14 points to 12 points. Currently, 11% of voters – and 19% of independents – indicate they would consider a minor party candidate.”
Former President Trump (Sean Rayford/Getty Images)
KAMALA HARRIS HAS BEEN OFFICIALLY CONFIRMED AS THE DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
This poll, conducted in a state that has consistently favored Democratic candidates since Ronald Reagan’s sweeping victory in 1984, reflects Harris’s increasing competitiveness against Trump in national polls after taking over the lead from Biden.
As of Tuesday, the Real Clear Politics polling average shows Harris maintaining a slight national lead over Trump. This shift is quite significant, considering that just the day before Biden’s withdrawal from the race, Trump was ahead by three points against the current president.
Betting odds have also considerably narrowed since Biden’s departure, with the Real Clear Politics Betting Average indicating Trump’s chances of victory at 52% compared to Harris at 46.3%.
President Biden speaks during a campaign event in Philadelphia on April 18, 2024. (Hannah Beier/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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These numbers represent a significant change from a week before Biden’s announcement, when Trump had a 66.2% chance of winning, compared to Biden’s 18% and Harris’s 7.3%.
The Siena College Research Institute poll was conducted from July 28 to August 1, surveying 1,199 likely voters in New York, with a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.
