The race for the White House has reverted to a narrow-margin contest.
Following last month’s underwhelming debate performance by President Biden, former President Trump saw his lead over Biden increase, leading to intensified calls from within the Democratic Party for Biden to withdraw from the election.
However, just eight days after Biden announced his decision to not seek re-election, Vice President Kamala Harris quickly gained support within the party, positioning herself as the presumptive Democratic nominee for 2024. Polls now suggest a return to a margin-of-error race.
Crucially, it has become highly competitive once again in the key battleground states that are likely to determine the presidential race’s outcome. Recent Fox News polls taken after Biden’s significant announcement in three of the seven essential states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—show a dead heat between Trump and Harris.
WHAT THE LATEST FOX NEWS POLLING IN THE KEY BATTLEGROUNDS SHOWS
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at West Allis Central High School during her first campaign rally in Milwaukee on July 23, 2024. (KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
In addition, in Minnesota and New Hampshire—states where Republicans haven’t won a presidential election in years—recent polls suggest Trump is highly competitive against Biden. However, the latest surveys show that Democrats are regaining single-digit leads with Harris as the nominee.
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GOP veteran pollster Tony Fabrizio, who works for the Trump campaign, previously anticipated this shift, referring to what he termed the “Harris Honeymoon.”
“We’re going to start seeing public polling, especially national public polls, where Harris is either closing in on or even surpassing President Trump,” Fabrizio noted in a memo to the campaign.
Republican presidential candidate former President Trump dances as he concludes a campaign rally on Saturday, July 27, 2024, in St. Cloud, Minnesota. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
“The Democrats and the mainstream media will attempt to present these polls as evidence of a shift in the race. However, the fundamental issues remain unchanged. Changing the nominee doesn’t mitigate voter dissatisfaction over the economy, inflation, crime, the open border, rising housing costs, and concerns regarding two foreign conflicts,” Fabrizio contended.
THE STATE OF THE RACE WITH 100 DAYS TO GO UNTIL THE NOVEMBER ELECTION
He projected that “the Harris ‘honeymoon’ will eventually fade, and voters will shift their focus back to her role as Biden’s partner and co-leader. Moreover, voters will start to uncover Harris’s extremely liberal track record prior to becoming Biden’s counterpart.”
“Although public polling may fluctuate in the short term, and she may stabilize her support among Democrats, Harris cannot change her identity or her past actions,” Fabrizio asserted.
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump. (Getty Images)
Conversely, veteran Democratic pollster Chris Anderson argues that it’s too early for concrete predictions.
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“Only time will tell, and I’m unsure if she has fully experienced her bump yet. It’s been just a week, and the reality of Harris as the nominee is still settling in, with campaign strategies being outlined,” noted Anderson, who is part of the Fox News Election Decision Team and the Democratic collaborator on the Fox News Poll.
Anderson also pointed out that “soon, Harris will announce her VP choice, followed by the convention, providing her an opportunity to maintain dominance in the news cycles. So, while the polls might reflect a temporary boost that will quickly fade, they could also signal the beginning of an upward trend.”
Stay updated with the latest from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews, and more at our Fox News Digital election hub.
