What we learned from Friday practice at the 2024 Belgian GP

The final practice sessions on Friday ahead of Formula 1’s summer break concluded with Max Verstappen dominating FP1 at the Belgian Grand Prix, while Lando Norris topped the charts in FP2.

Verstappen will have to qualify without the opportunity to start on pole due to a 10-position engine penalty for introducing new power unit components for the Spa-Francorchamps weekend, similar to his strategy in the last two years of this race. In those previous editions, the Dutchman managed to recover and win, but this year’s challenge is considerably tougher given the competitive edge of the McLaren team.

So, how do his chances assess, and do teams other than McLaren and Ferrari have potential? We’ve analyzed the long-run data from FP2 to see who is in good shape and who might need an overnight miracle.

Highlights of the Day

In FP1, Verstappen demonstrated his competitive spirit despite his grid penalty, putting down a time that was over half a second quicker than his closest rival, Oscar Piastri, leading the earlier session.

The anticipated rain receded after a morning downpour, allowing teams ample time for dry-weather runs in readiness for the expected sunny conditions on Sunday. Piastri, fresh off his maiden grand prix victory in Hungary, finished two-tenths ahead of Alex Albon’s surprisingly strong third-place time.

Verstappen set the early pace for Red Bull, demonstrating his determination to compete despite his grid penalty

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

The rain held off during FP2, and predictions of precipitation late in the session dissipated, enabling long runs and qualifying simulations on soft tires to proceed without obstacles. Verstappen established the early pace on mediums, but the McLarens surged to the top on softs. Piastri broke the new benchmark set by Carlos Sainz, leading with a time of 1m42.475s, while Verstappen was a mere 0.002s behind.

Norris then claimed the top spot with a time of 1m42.260s, successfully securing McLaren’s dominance in the top two positions as FP2 concluded. A gap of three and a half tenths between the top three and Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc indicated a significant competitive disparity between the leading trio and teams like Ferrari and Mercedes, although fuel loads remain a mystery at this stage.

The enhanced competitiveness at the front suggests that Verstappen will face a challenging journey to reclaim the lead.

Both Leclerc and Sainz surpassed George Russell, with the Brit finishing over a second behind the fastest time; Esteban Ocon trailed just another tenth, despite having missed FP1 due to a battery cooling system water leak that impacted his session.

McLaren Poised for Pole – Provided Rain Doesn’t Disrupt on Saturday

The laps set by Norris and Piastri in FP2 indicate that McLaren is well-positioned to add another pole position to their tally this season, even without considering Verstappen’s grid penalty. Examining the sector times, Norris appeared to hold an advantage in the second and third sectors, while Piastri was quicker in the opening sector.

Initially, Verstappen seemed to have the edge in the middle sector, where quick corners like Pouhon and the flowing Fagnes chicane reward commitment with improved lap times. However, Norris tested this theory and ultimately found over a tenth of a second in comparison to the Red Bull.

If the McLarens manage to replicate their front-row lockout from Hungary and Verstappen places third, he could potentially begin the race from 13th on the grid. Red Bull has utilized the Belgian Grand Prix in the last two seasons for taking grid penalties, as their strengths align perfectly with the Spa-Francorchamps circuit. However, the increased competitiveness at the front suggests that reclaiming the lead will not be an easy task for Verstappen. Furthermore, the reduced efficiency of DRS along the Kemmel Straight—due to the activation zone being shortened by 75m—could diminish the chances of straightforward overtakes into Les Combes.

McLaren’s competitive edge casts doubt on Verstappen’s guaranteed pole. A repetition of Hungary’s front-row lockout could leave Red Bull’s star starting 13th on the grid

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

However, there is the potential for rain, which could lead to an unexpected order. Forecasts for Thursday suggested rain during Friday’s sessions, but this did not materialize, making it uncertain whether qualifying will be affected by wet conditions. If it rains, rightly nothing is assured: Verstappen could start as high as 11th on Sunday (depending on wheel-to-wheel exchanges before him), but a mistake in slippery conditions could place him even further back.

Comparing Norris’ fastest time to Verstappen’s shows that McLaren holds a slight edge in straight-line speed versus Red Bull. There is speculation that Red Bull’s Honda-derived powertrains may not be running at full power, although Verstappen’s car still appears to occasionally hit the rev limiter.

Moreover, there are differing strategies between Norris and Verstappen. In the tight corners at La Source and Bruxelles, along with the downshifts at Les Fagnes, Norris takes a gear lower than Verstappen. As a consequence, the Dutchman maintains less speed entering the corner, which translates to diminished acceleration on exit, resulting in a slight time deficit over the lap.

Will this insight influence Verstappen’s approach? It depends on the powertrain settings, though it may be prudent for him to adjust if he trusts in his Red Bull’s acceleration capabilities.

Should the weather hold up, the predicted order will become clearer. However, if rain is as intense as during the 2021 near-washout qualifying session, it will surely create an exhilarating spectacle…

How far can Verstappen progress with his grid penalty?

The initial race runs on the medium tire indicated a tight contest between McLaren and Red Bull, with Piastri’s adjusted average time marginally edging Verstappen’s by a little over a tenth through an eight-lap window.

Sergio Perez executed a longer stint for Red Bull on mediums, recording a 12-lap average of 1m50.248s. Conversely, Norris concentrated on running softs, yielding limited comparability in long-run data.

McLaren and Red Bull are closely matched on medium tires

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Average FP2 Medium Tire Performance

Should the McLarens maintain their front-row lockout and Verstappen qualifies third, he would be lined up in 13th. The two orange cars certainly possess the pace to evade being caught, as long as they navigate La Source without conflict, which might lead to an intense duel between Piastri and Norris if both can manage their tires effectively.

Mercedes has faced significant difficulties during the Friday sessions; the W15 is losing time on the straights, with Russell voicing concerns about power drop-off into Turn 1.

For Verstappen to move up, he must either unlock additional pace overnight or count on his team to strategize efficiently, allowing for some flexibility.

Ferrari’s race pace appears decent, though it seems to lack a couple of tenths compared to McLaren and Red Bull. Securing a spot on the second row will be crucial to prevent falling behind a charging Verstappen later in the race; they must aim to maintain proximity to McLaren and look to escape should Verstappen encounter traffic.
Leclerc and Sainz will have to prepare for Verstappen’s inevitable emergence in their rearview mirrors, thus their race strategy will hinge on delaying his advance.

They must also avoid an embarrassing early exit from qualifying and aim to nail Q3, though this is easier said than done if the rain comes. Preventing a repeat of Leclerc’s Q2 exit at Silverstone will be critical.

If Ferrari can get close to McLaren in qualifying, it stands a chance of a podium should Verstappen face challenges overtaking

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images

Then there’s Mercedes, an important factor as McLaren might have preferred them to act as a disruptor in the pack, offering Verstappen no easy time in potential wheel-to-wheel situations. However, the team struggled throughout Friday’s sessions; the W15 appeared to be losing significant time on straights, with Russell noting issues regarding power loss into Turn 1.

During FP1, observations indicated that the car was set low, producing an array of dazzling sparks much higher up the hill toward Raidillon than other cars. Both Russell and Hamilton demonstrated lackluster performance during their long runs, as reflected in the previous lap-time leaderboard.

Perhaps Hamilton’s earlier comments about the car needing a narrow setup window were prescient. This could be a hasty conclusion, as the two W15s may emerge tomorrow with optimized settings, putting them back into contention for pole. However, it might also suggest that the challenges presented by Spa have pushed Mercedes beyond its comfort zone. Russell seemed to counter this theory, claiming their cars were running at full power; thus, the team appears to be facing some substantial hurdles.

Lowering the vehicle typically improves the ground effect and increases aerodynamic downforce, but this becomes more complicated on circuits with varying elevation, especially with Eau Rouge’s compressions causing the cars to clip the ground.

Silverstone features a relatively flat layout, while Austria and Hungary have elevation changes, yet none as dramatic as Spa. However, this does not entirely clarify the deficit in top speed, estimated at about 0.9 seconds per lap behind the front-runners.

As for the midfielders, Alex Albon felt comfortable in the Williams following minor adjustments during FP2 to tackle understeering issues through Malmedy and Pouhon, as the front tires struggled during his early laps. Albon expressed optimism about being “in the fight for Q3” on Saturday, while Alpine looked competitive, although Aston Martin’s race pace did not seem strong, even though both Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll managed to position themselves in the middle of the timing board.

What They Said

Max Verstappen: “We tried quite a few things today, tweaking and testing the car. Spa challenges all focus on finding a balance since you need top speed in sectors one and three, but cornering speed in the long middle sector. It’s always tough to achieve the right setup, but today was initially positive. We will carefully analyze the data in the debrief after FP2, so we have areas to optimize.”

Lewis Hamilton: “It has been a tough day; I honestly don’t know what to say. The car felt great in the past few races, but everything felt completely different today. We struggled in the first session, but then the adjustments during the second session improved it considerably. However, when I switched to the soft tires, I couldn’t enhance my time due to multiple balance issues. Overall, while it was better towards the end, the others improved even more, and being 1.2 seconds off the pace is less than ideal.”

Will Mercedes be able to resist a surging Verstappen?

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images